Scenarios for picturing a future adapted to 4°C

Journal Article

The world faces ever increasing rates and degrees of global environmental change. This chapter explores how the resulting need for transformative thinking, particularly in adapting to climate change, can be supported by the use of scenarios. Based on the accumulated experience of many scenario processes, it asks to what extent our current use of scenarios in this area is taking advantage of this experience. The term 'scenarios' covers a diversity of concepts and processes: assuming that anything called a scenario of the future will necessarily help all types of decision-making is very misleading. Wilkinson and Eidinow provide a useful typology, explicated with the help of a marine voyage analogy: problem-focused scenarios, actor-focused scenarios, and reflexive interventionist/multi-agent-based scenarios. The world appears to be headed towards more than 2°C of warming. Transformative thinking can help trigger mitigation behaviours that avoid much more warming than this, or to adapt to such a future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Smith, MS

Published Date

  • 2013

Published In

  • Climate Adaptation Futures

Start / End Page

  • 119 - 125

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1002/9781118529577.ch11