Updated prognostic model for predicting overall survival in first-line chemotherapy for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

PURPOSE: Prognostic models for overall survival (OS) for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) are dated and do not reflect significant advances in treatment options available for these patients. This work developed and validated an updated prognostic model to predict OS in patients receiving first-line chemotherapy. METHODS: Data from a phase III trial of 1,050 patients with mCRPC were used (Cancer and Leukemia Group B CALGB-90401 [Alliance]). The data were randomly split into training and testing sets. A separate phase III trial served as an independent validation set. Adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator selected eight factors prognostic for OS. A predictive score was computed from the regression coefficients and used to classify patients into low- and high-risk groups. The model was assessed for its predictive accuracy using the time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: The model included Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, disease site, lactate dehydrogenase, opioid analgesic use, albumin, hemoglobin, prostate-specific antigen, and alkaline phosphatase. Median OS values in the high- and low-risk groups, respectively, in the testing set were 17 and 30 months (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; P < .001); in the validation set they were 14 and 26 months (HR, 2.9; P < .001). The tAUCs were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.73) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76) in the testing and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSION: An updated prognostic model for OS in patients with mCRPC receiving first-line chemotherapy was developed and validated on an external set. This model can be used to predict OS, as well as to better select patients to participate in trials on the basis of their prognosis.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Halabi, S; Lin, C-Y; Kelly, WK; Fizazi, KS; Moul, JW; Kaplan, EB; Morris, MJ; Small, EJ

Published Date

  • March 1, 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 32 / 7

Start / End Page

  • 671 - 677

PubMed ID

  • 24449231

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC3927736

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1527-7755

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1200/JCO.2013.52.3696


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States