Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System.


Journal Article

A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Zhen, C; Finkelstein, EA; Nonnemaker, J; Karns, S; Todd, JE

Published Date

  • January 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 96 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 1 - 25

PubMed ID

  • 24839299

Pubmed Central ID

  • 24839299

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0002-9092

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1093/ajae/aat049


  • eng