Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology: the case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam.

Published

Journal Article

Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.

Full Text

Cited Authors

  • Rasmussen, DA; Boni, MF; Koelle, K

Published Date

  • February 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 31 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 258 - 271

PubMed ID

  • 24150038

Pubmed Central ID

  • 24150038

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1537-1719

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0737-4038

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1093/molbev/mst203

Language

  • eng