Locally adaptive factor processes for multivariate time series

Published

Journal Article

In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to mis-calibration of predictive intervals, which can be substantially too narrow or wide depending on the time. We propose a locally adaptive factor process for characterizing multivariate mean-covariance changes in continuous time, allowing locally varying smoothness in both the mean and covariance matrix. This process is constructed utilizing latent dictionary functions evolving in time through nested Gaussian processes and linearly related to the observed data with a sparse mapping. Using a diffential equation representation, we bypass usual computational bottlenecks in obtaining MCMC and online algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. The performance is assessed in simulations and illustrated in a financial application. © 2014 Daniele Durante, Bruno Scarpa and David B. Dunson.

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Durante, D; Scarpa, B; Dunson, DB

Published Date

  • January 1, 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 15 /

Start / End Page

  • 1493 - 1522

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1533-7928

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1532-4435

Citation Source

  • Scopus