Implications of changes in households and living arrangements for future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

OBJECTIVES: To better understand future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China. METHOD: To further develop and apply the ProFamy extended cohort-component method and the most recent census and survey data. RESULTS: (a) Chinese disabled elders and the annual growth rate of the percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to home-based care costs for disabled elders will increase much more rapidly than the growth of total elderly population; (b) home-based care needs and costs for disabled oldest-old aged 80+ will increase much faster than that for disabled young-old aged 65-79 after 2030; (c) disabled unmarried elders living alone and their home-based care costs increase substantially faster than those disabled unmarried elders living with children; (d) percent of rural disabled oldest-old will be substantially higher than that of rural population after 2030; (e) sensitivity analyses show that possible changes in mortality and elderly disability status are the major direct factors affecting home-based care needs and costs; (f) caregivers resources under the universal two-child policy will be substantially better than that under the rigorous fertility policy unchanged. DISCUSSION: We discuss policy recommendations concerning pathways to healthy aging with relatively reduced care costs, including reductions of the prevalence of disability, gender equality, the universal two-child policy and resources of caregivers, encouragements of rural-to-urban family migration and elder's residential proximity to their adult children, and remarriages of not-married elders.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Zeng, Y; Chen, H; Wang, Z; Land, KC

Published Date

  • April 2015

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 27 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 519 - 550

PubMed ID

  • 25213460

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC5099123

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1552-6887

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1177/0898264314552690


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States