Response to Martin and Vanberg: Evaluating a stochastic model of government formation

Published

Journal Article

© Southern Political Science Association, 2014. In a 2012 Journal of Politics article, we presented a zero-intelligence model of government formation. Our intent was to provide a "null" model of government formation, a baseline upon which other models could build. We made two claims regarding aggregate government formation outcomes: first, that our model produces aggregate results on the distributions of government types, cabinet portfolios, and bargaining delays in government formation that compare favorably to those in the real world; and second, that these aggregate distributions vary in theoretically intuitive ways as the model parameters change. In this issue, Martin and Vanberg (MV) criticize our model on theoretical and empirical grounds. Here we not only show how MV's evaluation of our model is flawed, but we also illustrate, using an analogy to common statistical practice, how one might properly attempt to falsify stochastic models such as ours at both the individual and the aggregate level.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Golder, M; Golder, SN; Siegel, DA

Published Date

  • January 1, 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 76 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 880 - 886

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1468-2508

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0022-3816

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1017/S002238161400053X

Citation Source

  • Scopus