An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence

Journal Article (Journal Article)

When faced with multi-outcome gambles involving possibilities of both gains and losses, people often use a simple heuristic that maximizes the overall probability of winning (Pwin). Across three different studies, using choice data as well as process data from eye tracking, we demonstrate that the Pwin heuristic is a frequently used strategy for decisions involving complex (multiple outcome) mixed gambles. Crucially, we show systematic contextual and individual differences in the use of Pwin heuristic. We discuss the implication of these findings in the context of the broader debate about single versus multiple strategies in risky choice, and the need to extend the study of risky decision making from simple to more complex gambles.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Venkatraman, V; Payne, JW; Huettel, SA

Published Date

  • November 1, 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 125 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 73 - 87

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0749-5978

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.obhdp.2014.06.003

Citation Source

  • Scopus