Mortality implications of mortality plateaus

Published

Journal Article (Review)

© 2015 SIAM. This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard. Mortality plateaus result from multiplicative (proportional) and additive hazards, but not from accelerated failure time models. Frailty can have any distribution with regularly-varying-at-0 density and the distribution of frailty among survivors to each subsequent age converges to a gamma distribution. In a multiplicative setting the baseline cumulative hazard can be represented as the inverse of the negative logarithm of any completely monotone function. If the plateau is reached, the only meaningful solution at the plateau is provided by the gamma-Gompertz model.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Missov, TI; Vaupel, JW

Published Date

  • January 1, 2015

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 57 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 61 - 70

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0036-1445

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1137/130912992

Citation Source

  • Scopus