Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk
We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it does not help in forecasting dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based "structural" factor GARCH model permits much more accurate inference than univariate regression procedures traditionally employed in the literature. The model also allows for the direct estimation of the underlying economic mechanisms, including a new volatility leverage effect, the persistence of the latent long-run growth component and the two latent volatility factors, as well as the contemporaneous impacts of the underlying "structural" shocks.
Duke Scholars
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Related Subject Headings
- Econometrics
- 4905 Statistics
- 3802 Econometrics
- 3801 Applied economics
- 1403 Econometrics
- 1402 Applied Economics
- 0104 Statistics
Citation
Published In
DOI
EISSN
ISSN
Publication Date
Volume
Issue
Start / End Page
Related Subject Headings
- Econometrics
- 4905 Statistics
- 3802 Econometrics
- 3801 Applied economics
- 1403 Econometrics
- 1402 Applied Economics
- 0104 Statistics