Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk

Published

Journal Article

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it does not help in forecasting dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based "structural" factor GARCH model permits much more accurate inference than univariate regression procedures traditionally employed in the literature. The model also allows for the direct estimation of the underlying economic mechanisms, including a new volatility leverage effect, the persistence of the latent long-run growth component and the two latent volatility factors, as well as the contemporaneous impacts of the underlying "structural" shocks.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Bollerslev, T; Xu, L; Zhou, H

Published Date

  • August 1, 2015

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 187 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 458 - 471

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1872-6895

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0304-4076

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.02.031

Citation Source

  • Scopus