Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

Journal Article (Academic article)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Li, W; Li, L, ; Deng, Y,

Published Date

  • July 24, 2015

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 5 /


  • 12358

Published By

PubMed ID

  • 26205462

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC4648449

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 2045-2322

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1038/srep12358


  • English