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An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Sullivan, B; Ming, D; Boggan, JC; Schulteis, RD; Thomas, S; Choi, J; Bae, J
Published in: J Hosp Med
December 2015

The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the next day, on the same day, or neither. Discharge predictions were recorded at 3 time points: mornings (7-9 am), midday (12-2 pm), or afternoons (5-7 pm), for a total of 2641 predictions. For predictions of next-day discharge, the sensitivity (SN) and positive predictive value (PPV) were lowest in the morning (27% and 33%, respectively), but increased by the afternoon (SN 67%, PPV 69%). Similarly, for same-day discharge predictions, SN and PPV were highest at midday (88% and 79%, respectively). We found that although physicians have difficulty predicting next-day discharges in the morning prior to the day of expected discharge, their ability to correctly predict discharges continually improved as the time to actual discharge decreased. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;10:808-810. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

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Published In

J Hosp Med

DOI

EISSN

1553-5606

Publication Date

December 2015

Volume

10

Issue

12

Start / End Page

808 / 810

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Prospective Studies
  • Physicians
  • Patient Discharge
  • Humans
  • General Practice
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Forecasting
  • Clinical Competence
  • 4205 Nursing
  • 4203 Health services and systems
 

Citation

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Chicago
ICMJE
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Sullivan, B., Ming, D., Boggan, J. C., Schulteis, R. D., Thomas, S., Choi, J., & Bae, J. (2015). An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service. J Hosp Med, 10(12), 808–810. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhm.2439
Sullivan, Brian, David Ming, Joel C. Boggan, Ryan D. Schulteis, Samantha Thomas, Josh Choi, and Jonathan Bae. “An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.J Hosp Med 10, no. 12 (December 2015): 808–10. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhm.2439.
Sullivan B, Ming D, Boggan JC, Schulteis RD, Thomas S, Choi J, et al. An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service. J Hosp Med. 2015 Dec;10(12):808–10.
Sullivan, Brian, et al. “An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.J Hosp Med, vol. 10, no. 12, Dec. 2015, pp. 808–10. Pubmed, doi:10.1002/jhm.2439.
Sullivan B, Ming D, Boggan JC, Schulteis RD, Thomas S, Choi J, Bae J. An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service. J Hosp Med. 2015 Dec;10(12):808–810.
Journal cover image

Published In

J Hosp Med

DOI

EISSN

1553-5606

Publication Date

December 2015

Volume

10

Issue

12

Start / End Page

808 / 810

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Prospective Studies
  • Physicians
  • Patient Discharge
  • Humans
  • General Practice
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Forecasting
  • Clinical Competence
  • 4205 Nursing
  • 4203 Health services and systems