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Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

Publication ,  Journal Article
Pascale, S; Lucarini, V; Feng, X; Porporato, A; ul Hasson, S
Published in: Climate Dynamics
February 1, 2016

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions—southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia—and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1 month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90% of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2 weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.

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Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

February 1, 2016

Volume

46

Issue

3-4

Start / End Page

1331 / 1350

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

APA
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Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., Feng, X., Porporato, A., & ul Hasson, S. (2016). Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Climate Dynamics, 46(3–4), 1331–1350. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4
Pascale, S., V. Lucarini, X. Feng, A. Porporato, and S. ul Hasson. “Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.” Climate Dynamics 46, no. 3–4 (February 1, 2016): 1331–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4.
Pascale S, Lucarini V, Feng X, Porporato A, ul Hasson S. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Climate Dynamics. 2016 Feb 1;46(3–4):1331–50.
Pascale, S., et al. “Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.” Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, no. 3–4, Feb. 2016, pp. 1331–50. Scopus, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4.
Pascale S, Lucarini V, Feng X, Porporato A, ul Hasson S. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Climate Dynamics. 2016 Feb 1;46(3–4):1331–1350.
Journal cover image

Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

February 1, 2016

Volume

46

Issue

3-4

Start / End Page

1331 / 1350

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences