A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

Journal Article (Journal Article)

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Hahn, PR; Goswami, I; Mela, CF

Published Date

  • September 1, 2015

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 9 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 1459 - 1483

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1941-7330

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1932-6157

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1214/15-AOAS830

Citation Source

  • Scopus