A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game
Journal Article (Journal Article)
The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Hahn, PR; Goswami, I; Mela, CF
Published Date
- September 1, 2015
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 9 / 3
Start / End Page
- 1459 - 1483
Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)
- 1941-7330
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 1932-6157
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1214/15-AOAS830
Citation Source
- Scopus