Combining economic forecasts
Publication
, Journal Article
Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL
Published in: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
January 1, 1986
A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of forecasters. The results indicate that a simple average, the normal model with an independence assumption, and the Bayesian model perform better than the other approaches that are studied here. © 1986 American Statistical Association.
Duke Scholars
Published In
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
DOI
EISSN
1537-2707
ISSN
0735-0015
Publication Date
January 1, 1986
Volume
4
Issue
1
Start / End Page
39 / 46
Related Subject Headings
- Econometrics
- 49 Mathematical sciences
- 38 Economics
- 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
- 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
- 14 Economics
- 01 Mathematical Sciences
Citation
APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1986). Combining economic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 4(1), 39–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492
Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining economic forecasts.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 39–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492.
Clemen RT, Winkler RL. Combining economic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 1986 Jan 1;4(1):39–46.
Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining economic forecasts.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 4, no. 1, Jan. 1986, pp. 39–46. Scopus, doi:10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492.
Clemen RT, Winkler RL. Combining economic forecasts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 1986 Jan 1;4(1):39–46.
Published In
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
DOI
EISSN
1537-2707
ISSN
0735-0015
Publication Date
January 1, 1986
Volume
4
Issue
1
Start / End Page
39 / 46
Related Subject Headings
- Econometrics
- 49 Mathematical sciences
- 38 Economics
- 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
- 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
- 14 Economics
- 01 Mathematical Sciences