Skip to main content
Journal cover image

Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation

Publication ,  Journal Article
Butchart, N; Scaife, AA; Bourqui, M; Grandpré, J; Hare, SHE; Kettleborough, J; Langematz, U; Manzini, E; Sassi, F; Shibata, K; Shindell, D; Sigmond, M
Published in: Climate Dynamics
December 1, 2006

The effect of climate change on the Brewer-Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt s-1 year-1 or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean. © British Crown Copyright 2006.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

December 1, 2006

Volume

27

Issue

7-8

Start / End Page

727 / 741

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Butchart, N., Scaife, A. A., Bourqui, M., Grandpré, J., Hare, S. H. E., Kettleborough, J., … Sigmond, M. (2006). Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Climate Dynamics, 27(7–8), 727–741. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4
Butchart, N., A. A. Scaife, M. Bourqui, J. Grandpré, S. H. E. Hare, J. Kettleborough, U. Langematz, et al. “Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.” Climate Dynamics 27, no. 7–8 (December 1, 2006): 727–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4.
Butchart N, Scaife AA, Bourqui M, Grandpré J, Hare SHE, Kettleborough J, et al. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Climate Dynamics. 2006 Dec 1;27(7–8):727–41.
Butchart, N., et al. “Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.” Climate Dynamics, vol. 27, no. 7–8, Dec. 2006, pp. 727–41. Scopus, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4.
Butchart N, Scaife AA, Bourqui M, Grandpré J, Hare SHE, Kettleborough J, Langematz U, Manzini E, Sassi F, Shibata K, Shindell D, Sigmond M. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Climate Dynamics. 2006 Dec 1;27(7–8):727–741.
Journal cover image

Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

December 1, 2006

Volume

27

Issue

7-8

Start / End Page

727 / 741

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences