A clinical and biochemical score for mortality prediction in patients with acute dyspnoea: derivation, validation and incorporation into a bedside programme.

Published

Journal Article

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification for patients with acute dyspnoea is a challenging task. No quantitative tool for mortality prediction among patients with acute dyspnoea is available. METHODS: 595 dyspnoeic subjects were enrolled in an emergency department. Clinical and biochemical factors independently predictive of death by 1 year were used to develop a mortality risk prediction tool. RESULTS: Seven factors comprised the final tool: age (x0.3), heart rate (x0.2), blood urea nitrogen (x0.3), New York Heart Association class (x5), amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) >or=986 pg/ml (18 points), systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg (11 points) and presence of a murmur (11 points). A continuous rise in mortality was seen from 1.7% in the lowest score quintile (n = 118; score or=85.5; p<0.001 for trend). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the score's accuracy produced an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.85) with similar AUCs in subjects with acutely destabilised heart failure (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.79) and those without (AUC = 0.83, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.85, p for the comparison = NS). The score was validated in a separate population of dyspnoeic patients (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.82; p<0.001) and was incorporated into a computer program suitable for near-patient calculation. CONCLUSION: A new risk stratification tool for acutely dyspnoeic patients has been derived and validated.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Baggish, AL; Lloyd-Jones, DM; Blatt, J; Richards, AM; Lainchbury, J; O'Donoghue, M; Sakhuja, R; Chen, AA; Januzzi, JL

Published Date

  • August 2008

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 94 / 8

Start / End Page

  • 1032 - 1037

PubMed ID

  • 17947362

Pubmed Central ID

  • 17947362

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1468-201X

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1136/hrt.2007.128132

Language

  • eng

Conference Location

  • England