Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change


Journal Article

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socio-economic, policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation method appropriate to their situation.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Mallampalli, VR; Mavrommati, G; Thompson, J; Duveneck, M; Meyer, S; Ligmann-Zielinska, A; Druschke, CG; Hychka, K; Kenney, MA; Kok, K; Borsuk, ME

Published Date

  • August 1, 2016

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 82 /

Start / End Page

  • 7 - 20

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1364-8152

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.011

Citation Source

  • Scopus