Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility
Journal Article (Journal Article)
Using a novel no-arbitrage model and extensive second-moment data, we decompose conditional volatility of U.S. Treasury yields into volatilities of short-rate expectations and term premia. Short-rate expectations become more volatile than premia before recessions and during asset market distress. Correlation between shocks to premia and shocks to short-rate expectations is close to zero on average and varies with the monetary policy stance. While Treasuries are nearly unexposed to variance shocks, investors pay a premium for hedging variance risk with derivatives. We illustrate the dynamics of the yield volatility components during and after the financial crisis.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Cieslak, A; Povala, P
Published Date
- June 1, 2016
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 71 / 3
Start / End Page
- 1393 - 1436
Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)
- 1540-6261
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0022-1082
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1111/jofi.12388
Citation Source
- Scopus