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Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting inthe US, 1972-2008

Publication ,  Journal Article
Stegmueller, D
Published in: Electoral Studies
March 1, 2014

To examine dynamics of political processes using repeated cross-section data, effects of age, cohort, and time period have to be disentangled. I propose a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model with cohort and period effects modeled as random walk through time. It includes smoothly time-varying effects of covariates, allowing researchers to study changing effects of individual characteristics on political behavior. It provides a flexible functional form estimate of age by integrating a semi-parametric approach in the hierarchical model. I employ this approach to examine religious voting in the United States using repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1972 to 2008. I find starkly differing nonlinear trends of de- and re-alignment among different religious denominations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Electoral Studies

DOI

ISSN

0261-3794

Publication Date

March 1, 2014

Volume

33

Start / End Page

52 / 62

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science
 

Citation

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ICMJE
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Stegmueller, D. (2014). Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting inthe US, 1972-2008. Electoral Studies, 33, 52–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.06.005
Stegmueller, D. “Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting inthe US, 1972-2008.” Electoral Studies 33 (March 1, 2014): 52–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.06.005.
Stegmueller, D. “Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort models with time-structured effects: An application to religious voting inthe US, 1972-2008.” Electoral Studies, vol. 33, Mar. 2014, pp. 52–62. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.06.005.
Journal cover image

Published In

Electoral Studies

DOI

ISSN

0261-3794

Publication Date

March 1, 2014

Volume

33

Start / End Page

52 / 62

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science