Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study


Journal Article

©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Samset, BH; Myhre, G; Forster, PM; Hodnebrog, ; Andrews, T; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, JF; Olivié, D; Richardson, T; Shindell, D; Shine, KP; Takemura, T; Voulgarakis, A

Published Date

  • March 28, 2016

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 43 / 6

Start / End Page

  • 2782 - 2791

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1944-8007

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0094-8276

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1002/2016GL068064

Citation Source

  • Scopus