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Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Ryser, MD; Lee, WT; Ready, NE; Leder, KZ; Foo, J
Published in: Cancer Res
December 15, 2016

High rates of local recurrence in tobacco-related head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are commonly attributed to unresected fields of precancerous tissue. Because they are not easily detectable at the time of surgery without additional biopsies, there is a need for noninvasive methods to predict the extent and dynamics of these fields. Here, we developed a spatial stochastic model of tobacco-related HNSCC at the tissue level and calibrated the model using a Bayesian framework and population-level incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Probabilistic model analyses were performed to predict the field geometry at time of diagnosis, and model predictions of age-specific recurrence risks were tested against outcome data from SEER. The calibrated models predicted a strong dependence of the local field size on age at diagnosis, with a doubling of the expected field diameter between ages at diagnosis of 50 and 90 years, respectively. Similarly, the probability of harboring multiple, clonally unrelated fields at the time of diagnosis was found to increase substantially with patient age. On the basis of these findings, we hypothesized a higher recurrence risk in older than in younger patients when treated by surgery alone; we successfully tested this hypothesis using age-stratified outcome data. Further clinical studies are needed to validate the model predictions in a patient-specific setting. This work highlights the importance of spatial structure in models of epithelial carcinogenesis and suggests that patient age at diagnosis may be a critical predictor of the size and multiplicity of precancerous lesions. Cancer Res; 76(24); 7078-88. ©2016 AACR.

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Published In

Cancer Res

DOI

EISSN

1538-7445

Publication Date

December 15, 2016

Volume

76

Issue

24

Start / End Page

7078 / 7088

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Tobacco Use
  • Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and Neck
  • SEER Program
  • Risk Factors
  • Precancerous Conditions
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Ryser, M. D., Lee, W. T., Ready, N. E., Leder, K. Z., & Foo, J. (2016). Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach. Cancer Res, 76(24), 7078–7088. https://doi.org/10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-16-1054
Ryser, Marc D., Walter T. Lee, Neal E. Ready, Kevin Z. Leder, and Jasmine Foo. “Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach.Cancer Res 76, no. 24 (December 15, 2016): 7078–88. https://doi.org/10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-16-1054.
Ryser MD, Lee WT, Ready NE, Leder KZ, Foo J. Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach. Cancer Res. 2016 Dec 15;76(24):7078–88.
Ryser, Marc D., et al. “Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach.Cancer Res, vol. 76, no. 24, Dec. 2016, pp. 7078–88. Pubmed, doi:10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-16-1054.
Ryser MD, Lee WT, Ready NE, Leder KZ, Foo J. Quantifying the Dynamics of Field Cancerization in Tobacco-Related Head and Neck Cancer: A Multiscale Modeling Approach. Cancer Res. 2016 Dec 15;76(24):7078–7088.

Published In

Cancer Res

DOI

EISSN

1538-7445

Publication Date

December 15, 2016

Volume

76

Issue

24

Start / End Page

7078 / 7088

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Tobacco Use
  • Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and Neck
  • SEER Program
  • Risk Factors
  • Precancerous Conditions
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male