Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises.

Journal Article

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Sands, P; El Turabi, A; Saynisch, PA; Dzau, VJ

Published Date

  • November 2016

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 388 / 10058

Start / End Page

  • 2443 - 2448

PubMed ID

  • 27212427

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1474-547X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0140-6736

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)30594-3

Language

  • eng