Using percentile matching to simulate labor progression and the effect of labor duration on birth complications


Conference Paper

© 2015 IEEE. Of the nearly 4 million births that occur each year in the U.S., almost 1 in 3 is a cesarean delivery. Due to the various increased risks associated with cesarean sections (C-sections) and the potential major complications in subsequent pregnancies, a re-evaluation of the C-section rate has been a topic of major concern for patients and health care providers. To evaluate the current C-section rate due to a "failure-to-progress" diagnosis, we implement a percentile matching procedure to derive labor progression times needed to replicate the delivery process in a discrete event simulation for women undergoing a trial of labor. The goals are to: (1) model the natural progression of labor in absence of C-sections, (2) determine the underlying rules responsible for the current rate of cesarean deliveries due to a "failure-to-progress" diagnosis, and (3) develop stopping rules that reduce the number of cesarean deliveries and the rate of complications.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Hicklin, K; Ivy, JS; Wilson, JR; Myers, E

Published Date

  • February 16, 2016

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 2016-February /

Start / End Page

  • 3104 - 3105

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0891-7736

International Standard Book Number 13 (ISBN-13)

  • 9781467397438

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1109/WSC.2015.7408421

Citation Source

  • Scopus