Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors

Published

Journal Article

The personalistic theory of probability prescribes that personal probability assessments to be used in decision-making situations should correspond with the assessor's judgments. A payoff function which depends on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event which actually occurs may be used (1) to keep the assessor honest or (2) to evaluate the assessor. It is shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible. This conflict is explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator (the user of the probabilistic predictions). © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1969

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 64 / 327

Start / End Page

  • 1073 - 1078

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1537-274X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0162-1459

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037

Citation Source

  • Scopus