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Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors

Publication ,  Journal Article
Winkler, RL
Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association
January 1, 1969

The personalistic theory of probability prescribes that personal probability assessments to be used in decision-making situations should correspond with the assessor's judgments. A payoff function which depends on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event which actually occurs may be used (1) to keep the assessor honest or (2) to evaluate the assessor. It is shown that with the exception of a logarithmic payoff function, these two uses of payoff functions for assessors are not compatible. This conflict is explained in terms of the differences in the situations facing the assessor and the evaluator (the user of the probabilistic predictions). © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

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Published In

Journal of the American Statistical Association

DOI

EISSN

1537-274X

ISSN

0162-1459

Publication Date

January 1, 1969

Volume

64

Issue

327

Start / End Page

1073 / 1078

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

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Winkler, R. L. (1969). Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 64(327), 1073–1078. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037
Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 327 (January 1, 1969): 1073–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037.
Winkler RL. Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1969 Jan 1;64(327):1073–8.
Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 64, no. 327, Jan. 1969, pp. 1073–78. Scopus, doi:10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037.
Winkler RL. Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1969 Jan 1;64(327):1073–1078.

Published In

Journal of the American Statistical Association

DOI

EISSN

1537-274X

ISSN

0162-1459

Publication Date

January 1, 1969

Volume

64

Issue

327

Start / End Page

1073 / 1078

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics