Nomogram to predict successful placement in surgical subspecialty fellowships using applicant characteristics.


Journal Article

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to develop a model that predicts an individual applicant's probability of successful placement into a surgical subspecialty fellowship program. METHODS: Candidates who applied to surgical fellowships during a 3-year period were identified in a set of databases that included the electronic application materials. RESULTS: Of the 1281 applicants who were available for analysis, 951 applicants (74%) successfully placed into a colon and rectal surgery, thoracic surgery, vascular surgery, or pediatric surgery fellowship. The optimal final prediction model, which was based on a logistic regression, included 14 variables. This model, with a c statistic of 0.74, allowed for the determination of a useful estimate of the probability of placement for an individual candidate. CONCLUSIONS: Of the factors that are available at the time of fellowship application, 14 were used to predict accurately the proportion of applicants who will successfully gain a fellowship position.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Muffly, TM; Barber, MD; Karafa, MT; Kattan, MW; Shniter, A; Jelovsek, JE

Published Date

  • May 2012

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 69 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 364 - 370

PubMed ID

  • 22483140

Pubmed Central ID

  • 22483140

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1878-7452

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.jsurg.2011.11.006


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States