Evaluating U.S. Electoral representation with a joint statistical model of congressional roll-calls, legislative text, and voter registration data

Conference Paper

Extensive information on 3 million randomly sampled United States citizens is used to construct a statistical model of constituent preferences for each U.S. congressional district. This model is linked to the legislative voting record of the legislator from each district, yielding an integrated model for constituency data, legislative roll-call votes, and the text of the legislation. The model is used to examine the extent to which legislators' voting records are aligned with constituent preferences, and the implications of that alignment (or lack thereof) on subsequent election outcomes. The analysis is based on a Bayesian formalism, with fast inference via a stochastic variational Bayesian analysis.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Xing, Z; Hillygus, S; Carin, L

Published Date

  • August 13, 2017

Published In

  • Proceedings of the Acm Sigkdd International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining

Volume / Issue

  • Part F129685 /

Start / End Page

  • 1205 - 1214

International Standard Book Number 13 (ISBN-13)

  • 9781450348874

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1145/3097983.3098151

Citation Source

  • Scopus