Predicting risk of cardiac events among ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients with conservatively managed non-infarct-related artery coronary artery disease: An analysis of the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

BACKGROUND: Recent randomized evidence has demonstrated benefit with complete revascularization during the index hospitalization for multivessel coronary artery disease ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients; however, this benefit likely depends on the risk of future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: Using data from Duke University Medical Center (2003-2012), we identified those at high risk for 1-year MACE among 664 STEMI patients with conservatively managed non-infarct-related artery (non-IRA) lesions. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified clinical and angiographic characteristics associated with MACE (death, myocardial infarction, urgent revascularization) to 1 year and developed an integer-based risk prediction model for clinical use. RESULTS: In this cohort (median age 60 years, 30% female), the unadjusted Kaplan-Meier rates for MACE at 30 days and 1 year were 10% and 28%, respectively. Characteristics associated with MACE at 1 year included reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, hypertension, heart failure, higher-risk non-IRA vessels (left main), renal insufficiency, and greater % stenosis of non-IRA lesions. A 15-point risk score including these variables had modest discrimination (C-index 0.67) across a spectrum of subsequent risk (4%-88%) for 1-year MACE. CONCLUSIONS: There is a wide spectrum of risk following primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI patients with multivessel disease. Using readily available clinical characteristics, the expected incidence of MACE by 1 year can be calculated with a simplified risk score, facilitating a tailored approach to clinical care.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Hirji, SA; Stevens, SR; Shaw, LK; Campbell, EC; Granger, CB; Patel, MR; Sketch, MH; Wang, TY; Ohman, EM; Peterson, ED; Brennan, JM

Published Date

  • December 2017

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 194 /

Start / End Page

  • 116 - 124

PubMed ID

  • 29223429

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1097-6744

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.ahj.2017.08.023


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States