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A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Barnard, KD; Dent, L; Cook, A
Published in: BMC medical research methodology
July 2010

Less than one third of publicly funded trials managed to recruit according to their original plan often resulting in request for additional funding and/or time extensions. The aim was to identify models which might be useful to a major public funder of randomised controlled trials when estimating likely time requirements for recruiting trial participants. The requirements of a useful model were identified as usability, based on experience, able to reflect time trends, accounting for centre recruitment and contribution to a commissioning decision.A systematic review of English language articles using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Search terms included: randomised controlled trial, patient, accrual, predict, enroll, models, statistical; Bayes Theorem; Decision Theory; Monte Carlo Method and Poisson. Only studies discussing prediction of recruitment to trials using a modelling approach were included. Information was extracted from articles by one author, and checked by a second, using a pre-defined form.Out of 326 identified abstracts, only 8 met all the inclusion criteria. Of these 8 studies examined, there are five major classes of model discussed: the unconditional model, the conditional model, the Poisson model, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models. None of these meet all the pre-identified needs of the funder.To meet the needs of a number of research programmes, a new model is required as a matter of importance. Any model chosen should be validated against both retrospective and prospective data, to ensure the predictions it gives are superior to those currently used.

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Published In

BMC medical research methodology

DOI

EISSN

1471-2288

ISSN

1471-2288

Publication Date

July 2010

Volume

10

Start / End Page

63

Related Subject Headings

  • Time Factors
  • Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Patient Selection
  • Multicenter Studies as Topic
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Models, Statistical
  • Humans
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Bayes Theorem
 

Citation

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Barnard, K. D., Dent, L., & Cook, A. (2010). A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 10, 63. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-10-63
Barnard, Katharine D., Louise Dent, and Andrew Cook. “A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials.BMC Medical Research Methodology 10 (July 2010): 63. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-10-63.
Barnard KD, Dent L, Cook A. A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials. BMC medical research methodology. 2010 Jul;10:63.
Barnard, Katharine D., et al. “A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials.BMC Medical Research Methodology, vol. 10, July 2010, p. 63. Epmc, doi:10.1186/1471-2288-10-63.
Barnard KD, Dent L, Cook A. A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials. BMC medical research methodology. 2010 Jul;10:63.
Journal cover image

Published In

BMC medical research methodology

DOI

EISSN

1471-2288

ISSN

1471-2288

Publication Date

July 2010

Volume

10

Start / End Page

63

Related Subject Headings

  • Time Factors
  • Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Patient Selection
  • Multicenter Studies as Topic
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Models, Statistical
  • Humans
  • General & Internal Medicine
  • Bayes Theorem