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Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach

Publication ,  Journal Article
Antolínez, JAA; Murray, AB; Méndez, FJ; Moore, LJ; Farley, G; Wood, J
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
February 1, 2018

Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

DOI

EISSN

2169-9011

ISSN

2169-9003

Publication Date

February 1, 2018

Volume

123

Issue

2

Start / End Page

229 / 251

Related Subject Headings

  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences
  • 04 Earth Sciences
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Antolínez, J. A. A., Murray, A. B., Méndez, F. J., Moore, L. J., Farley, G., & Wood, J. (2018). Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123(2), 229–251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367
Antolínez, J. A. A., A. B. Murray, F. J. Méndez, L. J. Moore, G. Farley, and J. Wood. “Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123, no. 2 (February 1, 2018): 229–51. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367.
Antolínez JAA, Murray AB, Méndez FJ, Moore LJ, Farley G, Wood J. Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 2018 Feb 1;123(2):229–51.
Antolínez, J. A. A., et al. “Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, vol. 123, no. 2, Feb. 2018, pp. 229–51. Scopus, doi:10.1002/2017JF004367.
Antolínez JAA, Murray AB, Méndez FJ, Moore LJ, Farley G, Wood J. Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 2018 Feb 1;123(2):229–251.

Published In

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface

DOI

EISSN

2169-9011

ISSN

2169-9003

Publication Date

February 1, 2018

Volume

123

Issue

2

Start / End Page

229 / 251

Related Subject Headings

  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences
  • 04 Earth Sciences