Forecasting China’s Carbon Intensity: Is China on Track to Comply with Its Copenhagen Commitment?

Published

Journal Article

© 2018 by the IAEE. All rights reserved. In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to slash its carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions/GDP) by 40% to 45% from the 2005 level by 2020. We assess whether China can achieve the target under the business-as-usual scenario by forecasting its emissions from energy consumption. Our preferred model shows that China’s carbon intensity is projected to decline by only 33%. The results imply that China needs additional mitigation effort to comply with the Copenhagen commitment. The emission growth is more than triple the emission reductions that the European Union and the United States have committed to in the same period.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Yang, Y; Zhang, J; Wang, C

Published Date

  • January 1, 2018

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 39 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 147 - 171

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0195-6574

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.5547/01956574.39.2.yyan

Citation Source

  • Scopus