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Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Beal, EW; Tumin, D; Kabir, A; Moris, D; Zhang, X-F; Chakedis, J; Washburn, K; Black, S; Schmidt, CM; Pawlik, TM
Published in: Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract
December 2017

Primary liver cancer mortality rates have been increasing in the US, but reported decreases among 35-49 year olds may foreshadow future declines. We sought to use age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to evaluate the contribution of cohort effects to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality trends in the US.Data on HCC mortality were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics WONDER Online Multiple Cause of Death database, 1999-2015. Crude mortality rates were plotted by gender and age at death. Gender-specific restricted cubic spline APC models were fit to determine influence of birth cohort on incidence of HCC mortality, in reference to the 1940 birth cohort.Highest mortality rates were found among men ages 70+, with steepest increase in mortality observed among men 55-69 years old. Similar trends were found among females. Accounting for the cohort effect in the APC model markedly improved model fit (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001). Relative to the 1940 birth cohort, risk of mortality due to HCC was significantly higher in later as well as earlier cohorts.HCC-associated mortality continues to increase, secondary to an increase in the risk of HCC-associated mortality in more recent birth cohorts among both men and women.

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Published In

Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract

DOI

EISSN

1873-4626

ISSN

1091-255X

Publication Date

December 2017

Volume

21

Issue

12

Start / End Page

2033 / 2038

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Surgery
  • Sex Factors
  • Mortality
  • Models, Statistical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Liver Neoplasms
  • Humans
  • Female
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Beal, E. W., Tumin, D., Kabir, A., Moris, D., Zhang, X.-F., Chakedis, J., … Pawlik, T. M. (2017). Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States. Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery : Official Journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, 21(12), 2033–2038. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7
Beal, Eliza W., Dmitry Tumin, Ali Kabir, Dimitrios Moris, Xu-Feng Zhang, Jeffery Chakedis, Kenneth Washburn, Sylvester Black, Carl M. Schmidt, and Timothy M. Pawlik. “Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States.Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery : Official Journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract 21, no. 12 (December 2017): 2033–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7.
Beal EW, Tumin D, Kabir A, Moris D, Zhang X-F, Chakedis J, et al. Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States. Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract. 2017 Dec;21(12):2033–8.
Beal, Eliza W., et al. “Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States.Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery : Official Journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract, vol. 21, no. 12, Dec. 2017, pp. 2033–38. Epmc, doi:10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7.
Beal EW, Tumin D, Kabir A, Moris D, Zhang X-F, Chakedis J, Washburn K, Black S, Schmidt CM, Pawlik TM. Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States. Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract. 2017 Dec;21(12):2033–2038.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract

DOI

EISSN

1873-4626

ISSN

1091-255X

Publication Date

December 2017

Volume

21

Issue

12

Start / End Page

2033 / 2038

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Surgery
  • Sex Factors
  • Mortality
  • Models, Statistical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Liver Neoplasms
  • Humans
  • Female