Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change


Journal Article

© The Author(s) 2014. Using updated Archigos Data, as well as structural and event data, we construct a split-population duration model of irregular leadership changes. These are leadership changes that occur outside of the normal, legal framework for leadership transitions. Our model was estimated in March 2014 and produced probability estimates of leadership changes in many countries in the world. We used a wisdom-of-the-crowds approach to combining estimates from various different models. Ukraine and Thailand are among those in which we had the highest predictions for irregular change of leaders.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Beger, A; Dorff, CL; Ward, MD

Published Date

  • October 1, 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 1 / 3

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2053-1680

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1177/2053168014557511

Citation Source

  • Scopus