Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens.

Published

Journal Article

The Hubble constant (H_{0}) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova distance ladder is in 3-σ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent H_{0} estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon supernova sample yields an H_{0} posterior near identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of ∼50 binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Feeney, SM; Peiris, HV; Williamson, AR; Nissanke, SM; Mortlock, DJ; Alsing, J; Scolnic, D

Published Date

  • February 2019

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 122 / 6

Start / End Page

  • 061105 -

PubMed ID

  • 30822066

Pubmed Central ID

  • 30822066

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1079-7114

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0031-9007

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1103/physrevlett.122.061105

Language

  • eng