A preoperative prognostic model to predict surgical success in patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.
BACKGROUND: Patients with resectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) on imaging have a substantial risk of metastatic or locally advanced disease, incomplete (R1) resection, and 90-day mortality. Our aim was to develop a preoperative prognostic model to predict surgical success, defined as a complete (R0) resection without 90-day mortality, in patients with resectable PHC on imaging. STUDY DESIGN: Patients with PHC who underwent exploratory laparotomy in three tertiary referral centers were identified. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify preoperatively available prognostic factors. A prognostic model was developed using data from two European centers and validated in one American center. RESULTS: In total, 671 patients with PHC underwent exploratory laparotomy. In the derivation cohort, surgical success was achieved in 102 of 331 patients (30.8%). No resection was performed in 176 patients (53.2%) because of metastatic or locally advanced disease. Of the 155 patients (46.8%) who underwent a resection, 38 (24.5%) had an R1-resection. Of the remaining 117 (35.3%), 15 (12.8%) had 90-day mortality. Independent poor prognostic factors for surgical success were identified, and a preoperative prognostic model was developed with a concordance index of 0.71. External validation showed good concordance (0.70). CONCLUSION: Surgical success was achieved in only 30% of patients with PHC undergoing exploratory laparotomy and could be predicted by age, cholangitis, hepatic artery involvement, lymph node metastases, and Blumgart stage.
Gaspersz, MP; Buettner, S; Roos, E; van Vugt, JLA; Coelen, RJS; Vugts, J; Wiggers, JK; Allen, PJ; Besselink, MG; Busch, ORC; Belt, EJ; D'Angelica, MI; DeMatteo, RP; de Jonge, J; Kingham, TP; Polak, WG; Willemssen, FEJA; van Gulik, TM; Jarnagin, WR; Ijzermans, JNM; Groot Koerkamp, B
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