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Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Groot Koerkamp, B; Wiggers, JK; Gonen, M; Doussot, A; Allen, PJ; Besselink, MGH; Blumgart, LH; Busch, ORC; D'Angelica, MI; DeMatteo, RP ...
Published in: Ann Oncol
September 2015

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms. RESULTS: For all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials.

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Published In

Ann Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1569-8041

Publication Date

September 2015

Volume

26

Issue

9

Start / End Page

1930 / 1935

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Prognosis
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Nomograms
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Klatskin Tumor
  • Humans
  • Female
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Groot Koerkamp, B., Wiggers, J. K., Gonen, M., Doussot, A., Allen, P. J., Besselink, M. G. H., … Jarnagin, W. R. (2015). Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram. Ann Oncol, 26(9), 1930–1935. https://doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdv279
Groot Koerkamp, B., J. K. Wiggers, M. Gonen, A. Doussot, P. J. Allen, M. G. H. Besselink, L. H. Blumgart, et al. “Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram.Ann Oncol 26, no. 9 (September 2015): 1930–35. https://doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdv279.
Groot Koerkamp B, Wiggers JK, Gonen M, Doussot A, Allen PJ, Besselink MGH, et al. Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram. Ann Oncol. 2015 Sep;26(9):1930–5.
Groot Koerkamp, B., et al. “Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram.Ann Oncol, vol. 26, no. 9, Sept. 2015, pp. 1930–35. Pubmed, doi:10.1093/annonc/mdv279.
Groot Koerkamp B, Wiggers JK, Gonen M, Doussot A, Allen PJ, Besselink MGH, Blumgart LH, Busch ORC, D’Angelica MI, DeMatteo RP, Gouma DJ, Kingham TP, van Gulik TM, Jarnagin WR. Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram. Ann Oncol. 2015 Sep;26(9):1930–1935.
Journal cover image

Published In

Ann Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1569-8041

Publication Date

September 2015

Volume

26

Issue

9

Start / End Page

1930 / 1935

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Prognosis
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Nomograms
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Klatskin Tumor
  • Humans
  • Female