Predicting the Risk of Readmission From Dehydration After Ileostomy Formation: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction Score.
BACKGROUND:All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20% to 30%. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described. OBJECTIVE:The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction scoring system to predict the risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation. DESIGN:Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set (2012-2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into a point scoring system based on corresponding β-coefficients using 2012-2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation). SETTINGS:This study used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. PATIENTS:A total of 8064 (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation was measured. RESULTS:A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9% (20.1% overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and 7 predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA class III (4 points), female sex (5 points), IPAA (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA class I to II with IBD (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (area under curve = 0.71) and validation samples (area under curve = 0.74) and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. LIMITATIONS:Limitations of this study pertained to those of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including a lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission International Classification of Diseases, 9/10 edition, codes. CONCLUSIONS:The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A746.
Chen, SY; Stem, M; Cerullo, M; Canner, JK; Gearhart, SL; Safar, B; Fang, SH; Efron, JE
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