The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making

Journal Article (Journal Article)

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Brownstein, NC; Louis, TA; O’Hagan, A; Pendergast, J

Published Date

  • March 29, 2019

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 73 / sup1

Start / End Page

  • 56 - 68

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1537-2731

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0003-1305

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1080/00031305.2018.1529623

Citation Source

  • Scopus