Development of a prognostic model for overall survival in multiple myeloma using the Connect® MM Patient Registry.

Journal Article (Journal Article;Multicenter Study)

Median overall survival (OS) has improved for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM), but prognosis varies depending on baseline patient characteristics. Current models use data from selected clinical trial populations, which prevent application to patients in an unselected community setting that reflects routine clinical practice. Using data from the Connect® MM Registry, a large, US, multicentre, prospective observational cohort study (Cohort 1: 2009-2011; Cohort 2: 2012-2016) of 3011 patients with NDMM, we identified prognostic variables for OS via the multivariable analysis of baseline patient characteristics in Cohort 1 (n = 1493) and developed a tool to examine individual outcomes. Factors associated with OS (n = 1450 treated patients; P < 0·05) were age, del(17p), triplet therapy use, EQ-5D mobility, International Staging System stage, solitary plasmacytoma, history of diabetes, platelet count, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and serum creatinine, which were used to create survival matrices for 3- and 5-year OS. The model was internally and externally validated using Connect MM Cohort 2 (Harrell's concordance index, 0·698), MM-015 (0·649), and the phase 3 FIRST (0·647) clinical trials. This novel prognostic tool may help inform outcomes for NDMM in the era of triplet therapy use with novel agents.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Terebelo, HR; Abonour, R; Gasparetto, CJ; Toomey, K; Durie, BGM; Hardin, JW; Jagannath, S; Wagner, L; Narang, M; Flick, ED; Srinivasan, S; Yue, L; Kitali, A; Agarwal, A; Rifkin, RM; CONNECT MM Registry Investigators,

Published Date

  • December 2019

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 187 / 5

Start / End Page

  • 602 - 614

PubMed ID

  • 31382320

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC6899784

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1365-2141

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/bjh.16139


  • eng

Conference Location

  • England