Predicted shortages of physicians might even disappear if we fully account for PAs and NPs.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

Healthcare workforce projections have important policy implications. Provider shortages can shortchange patients, and overproduction of providers imposes costs on society. The most publicized physician supply and demand projections, commissioned annually by the Association of American Medical Colleges, regularly predict dire physician shortages. These projections are based on unrealistically low estimates of the amount of physician work that can be replaced by physician assistants (PAs) and NPs. For example, the projections factor in the contribution of one primary care PA or NP as one-fourth that of a physician. If workforce projections used evidence-based productivity estimates, the predicted physician shortfalls would be much smaller and perhaps even disappear.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Morgan, P

Published Date

  • October 2019

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 32 / 10

Start / End Page

  • 51 - 53

PubMed ID

  • 31513036

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1547-1896

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1097/01.JAA.0000580580.89002.f4


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States