Development of Predictive Equations for Nocturnal Hypertension and Nondipping Systolic Blood Pressure.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

Background Nocturnal hypertension, defined by a mean asleep systolic blood pressure (SBP)/diastolic blood pressure (BP) ≥120/70 mm Hg, and nondipping SBP, defined by an awake-to-asleep decline in SBP <10%, are each associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Methods and Results We developed predictive equations to identify adults with a high probability of having nocturnal hypertension or nondipping SBP using data from the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study (n=787), JHS (Jackson Heart Study) (n=1063), IDH (Improving the Detection of Hypertension) study (n=395), and MHT (Masked Hypertension) study (n=772) who underwent 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring. Participants were randomized to derivation (n=2511) or validation (n=506) data sets. The prevalence rates of nocturnal hypertension and nondipping SBP were 39.7% and 44.9% in the derivation data set, respectively, and 36.6% and 44.5% in the validation data set, respectively. The predictive equation for nocturnal hypertension included age, race/ethnicity, smoking status, neck circumference, height, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albumin/creatinine ratio, and clinic SBP and diastolic BP. The predictive equation for nondipping SBP included age, sex, race/ethnicity, waist circumference, height, alcohol use, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and albumin/creatinine ratio. Concordance statistics (95% CI) for nocturnal hypertension and nondipping SBP predictive equations in the validation data set were 0.84 (0.80-0.87) and 0.73 (0.69-0.78), respectively. Compared with reference models including antihypertensive medication use and clinic SBP and diastolic BP as predictors, the continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI) values for the nocturnal hypertension and nondipping SBP predictive equations were 0.52 (0.35-0.69) and 0.51 (0.34-0.69), respectively. Conclusions These predictive equations can direct ambulatory BP monitoring toward adults with high probability of having nocturnal hypertension and nondipping SBP.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Jaeger, BC; Booth, JN; Butler, M; Edwards, LJ; Lewis, CE; Lloyd-Jones, DM; Sakhuja, S; Schwartz, JE; Shikany, JM; Shimbo, D; Yano, Y; Muntner, P

Published Date

  • January 21, 2020

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 9 / 2

Start / End Page

  • e013696 -

PubMed ID

  • 31914878

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC7033845

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2047-9980

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1161/JAHA.119.013696


  • eng

Conference Location

  • England