Analyses Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution Identify Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall Extremes in the Eastern United States


Journal Article (Letter)

©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Tropical cyclones (TCs) generate extreme precipitation with severe impacts across large coastal and inland areas, calling for accurate frequency estimation methods. Statistical approaches that take into account the physical mechanisms responsible for these extremes can help reduce the estimation uncertainty. Here we formulate a mixed-population Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution explicitly incorporating non-TC and TC-induced rainfall and evaluate its implications on long series of daily rainfall for six major U.S. urban areas impacted by these storms. We find statistically significant differences between the distributions of TC- and non-TC-related precipitation; moreover, including mixtures of distributions improves the estimation of the probability of extreme precipitation where TCs occur more frequently. These improvements are greater when rainfall aggregated over durations longer than one day are considered.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Miniussi, A; Villarini, G; Marani, M

Published Date

  • April 16, 2020

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 47 / 7

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1944-8007

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0094-8276

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1029/2020GL087238

Citation Source

  • Scopus