Forecast Households at the County Level: An Application of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Method in Six Counties of Southern California, 2010 to 2040

Policymakers and market analysts have long been interested in future trends of households. Among household projection methods, the ProFamy extended cohortcomponent method, as one alternative to the traditional headship-rate method, has recently been extended to the subnational levels. This paper illustrates the application of the ProFamy method at the county level by projecting household types, sizes, and elderly living arrangements for six counties of Southern California from 2010 to 2040, including Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura.Using this specific case, this paper introduces the rationales and procedure of the county-level application of the ProFamy method. The validation test for the ProFamy to project the 2010 population and households using the 2000 census data support the use of the ProFamy at the county level. And the ProFamy method also yields satisfactory results in comparison with the projections of headship-rate methods. The ProFamy forecasts on the six county of Southern California provide detailed information on the county-level trends of households and elderly living arrangement in this region, which are valuable information for the local planning agency but usually beyond the capacity of the traditional methods.

Duke Scholars

Author Yi Zeng Medicine, Geriatrics