The discovery of long-run causal order: A preliminary investigation


Journal Article

© 2020 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. The relation between causal structure and cointegration and long-run weak exogeneity is explored using some ideas drawn from the literature on graphical causal modeling. It is assumed that the fundamental source of trending behavior is transmitted from exogenous (and typically latent) trending variables to a set of causally ordered variables that would not themselves display nonstationary behavior if the nonstationary exogenous causes were absent. The possibility of inferring the long-run causal structure among a set of time-series variables from an exhaustive examination of weak exogeneity in irreducibly cointegrated subsets of variables is explored and illustrated.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Hoover, KD

Published Date

  • September 1, 2020

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 8 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 1 - 24

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 2225-1146

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.3390/econometrics8030031

Citation Source

  • Scopus