Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy

Published

Journal Article

© 2020, Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Real housing prices have both surged and swooned in formerly socialist countries. We use 2000–2017 aggregate housing sales and rental price data from Kazakhstan to explore price movements during boom and stagnation eras, investigating the rent–price ratio’s (RPR) capacity to predict housing returns and rent growth for an emerging post-Soviet economy. RPR predicts returns better during periods of price increases than declines, and its importance in predicting the bubble component diminishes with time. Short-run RPR changes are consistent with rational bubble behavior during the period of secular upswing but different predictive variables matter during price increases and declines.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • An, G; Becker, C; Cheng, E

Published Date

  • January 1, 2020

Published In

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1478-3320

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0888-7233

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1057/s41294-020-00138-9

Citation Source

  • Scopus