Correlated Rare Failure Analysis via Asymptotic Probability Evaluation

Journal Article (Journal Article)

In this paper, a novel Asymptotic Probability Estimation (APE) method is proposed to estimate the probability of correlated rare failure events for complex integrated systems containing a large number of replicated cells. The key idea is to approximate the failure rate of the entire system by solving a set of nonlinear equations derived from a general analytical model. An error refinement method based on Look-up Table (LUT) is further developed to improve numerical stability and, hence, reduce estimation error. Furthermore, a statistical algorithm based on re-sampling is developed to accurately estimate the confidence interval of APE. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that compared to the state-of-the-art method, APE can reduce the estimation error by up to 30× without increasing the computational cost.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Tao, J; Yu, H; Su, Y; Zhou, D; Zeng, X; Li, X

Published Date

  • January 1, 2021

Published In

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1937-4151

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0278-0070

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1109/TCAD.2021.3073075

Citation Source

  • Scopus