Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling
We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by decomposing them into multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using a rationality model of the adversary to produce a final probabilistic forecast. We then illustrate key concepts and modelling strategies of this approach to support its implementation.
Insua, DR; Banks, D; Ríos, J; González-Ortega, J
Volume / Issue
- International Series in Operations Research and Management Science
Start / End Page
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)