Skip to main content
International Series in Operations Research and Management Science

Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling

Publication ,  Chapter
Insua, DR; Banks, D; Ríos, J; González-Ortega, J
January 1, 2021

We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by decomposing them into multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using a rationality model of the adversary to produce a final probabilistic forecast. We then illustrate key concepts and modelling strategies of this approach to support its implementation.

Duke Scholars

DOI

Publication Date

January 1, 2021

Volume

293

Start / End Page

179 / 196
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Insua, D. R., Banks, D., Ríos, J., & González-Ortega, J. (2021). Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling. In International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Vol. 293, pp. 179–196). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_7
Insua, D. R., D. Banks, J. Ríos, and J. González-Ortega. “Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling.” In International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, 293:179–96, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_7.
Insua DR, Banks D, Ríos J, González-Ortega J. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling. In: International Series in Operations Research and Management Science. 2021. p. 179–96.
Insua, D. R., et al. “Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling.” International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 293, 2021, pp. 179–96. Scopus, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_7.
Insua DR, Banks D, Ríos J, González-Ortega J. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structured Expert Judgement Modelling. International Series in Operations Research and Management Science. 2021. p. 179–196.

DOI

Publication Date

January 1, 2021

Volume

293

Start / End Page

179 / 196