North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East.

Journal Article (Journal Article)

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Sharma, S; Andrus, R; Bergeron, Y; Bogdziewicz, M; Bragg, DC; Brockway, D; Cleavitt, NL; Courbaud, B; Das, AJ; Dietze, M; Fahey, TJ; Franklin, JF; Gilbert, GS; Greenberg, CH; Guo, Q; Hille Ris Lambers, J; Ibanez, I; Johnstone, JF; Kilner, CL; Knops, JMH; Koenig, WD; Kunstler, G; LaMontagne, JM; Macias, D; Moran, E; Myers, JA; Parmenter, R; Pearse, IS; Poulton-Kamakura, R; Redmond, MD; Reid, CD; Rodman, KC; Scher, CL; Schlesinger, WH; Steele, MA; Stephenson, NL; Swenson, JJ; Swift, M; Veblen, TT; Whipple, AV; Whitham, TG; Wion, AP; Woodall, CW; Zlotin, R; Clark, JS

Published Date

  • January 2022

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 119 / 3

Start / End Page

  • e2116691118 -

PubMed ID

  • 34983867

Pubmed Central ID

  • PMC8784119

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1091-6490

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0027-8424

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1073/pnas.2116691118


  • eng