Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition
Journal Article (Journal Article)
Probabilistic forecasts are necessary for robust decisions in the face of uncertainty. The M5 Uncertainty competition required participating teams to forecast nine quantiles for unit sales of various products at various aggregation levels and for different time horizons. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of the quantile forecasts at different aggregation levels and at different quantile levels. We contrast this with some theoretical predictions, and discuss potential implications and promising future research directions for the practice of probabilistic forecasting.
Full Text
Duke Authors
Cited Authors
- Chen, Z; Gaba, A; Tsetlin, I; Winkler, RL
Published Date
- October 1, 2022
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 38 / 4
Start / End Page
- 1531 - 1545
International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)
- 0169-2070
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.004
Citation Source
- Scopus