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Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Li, Y; Hu, T; Gai, X; Zhang, Y; Zhou, X
Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health
May 2021

Few studies have examined the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in rural areas and clarified rural-urban differences. Moreover, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) relative to vaccination in rural areas is uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap through using an improved statistical stochastic method based on the Galton-Watson branching process, considering both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Data included 1136 SARS-2-CoV infections of the rural outbreak in Hebei, China, and 135 infections of the urban outbreak in Tianjin, China. We reconstructed SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains and analyzed the effectiveness of vaccination and NPIs by simulation studies. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 showed strong heterogeneity in urban and rural areas, with the dispersion parameters k = 0.14 and 0.35, respectively (k < 1 indicating strong heterogeneity). Although age group and contact-type distributions significantly differed between urban and rural areas, the average reproductive number (R) and k did not. Further, simulation results based on pre-control parameters (R = 0.81, k = 0.27) showed that in the vaccination scenario (80% efficacy and 55% coverage), the cumulative secondary infections will be reduced by more than half; however, NPIs are more effective than vaccinating 65% of the population. These findings could inform government policies regarding vaccination and NPIs in rural and urban areas.

Duke Scholars

Published In

International journal of environmental research and public health

DOI

EISSN

1660-4601

ISSN

1661-7827

Publication Date

May 2021

Volume

18

Issue

10

Start / End Page

5221

Related Subject Headings

  • Toxicology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Humans
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Computer Simulation
  • China
  • COVID-19
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Li, Y., Hu, T., Gai, X., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, X. (2021). Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(10), 5221. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18105221
Li, Yuying, Taojun Hu, Xin Gai, Yunjun Zhang, and Xiaohua Zhou. “Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 10 (May 2021): 5221. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18105221.
Li Y, Hu T, Gai X, Zhang Y, Zhou X. Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2021 May;18(10):5221.
Li, Yuying, et al. “Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 18, no. 10, May 2021, p. 5221. Epmc, doi:10.3390/ijerph18105221.
Li Y, Hu T, Gai X, Zhang Y, Zhou X. Transmission Dynamics, Heterogeneity and Controllability of SARS-CoV-2: A Rural-Urban Comparison. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2021 May;18(10):5221.

Published In

International journal of environmental research and public health

DOI

EISSN

1660-4601

ISSN

1661-7827

Publication Date

May 2021

Volume

18

Issue

10

Start / End Page

5221

Related Subject Headings

  • Toxicology
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Humans
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Computer Simulation
  • China
  • COVID-19